Currencies - Daily Outlook
In these updates our focus is to identify the trend on the hourly chart - the so-called very short-term (VST) trend (this trend usually lasts several days to a few weeks) and to formulate a hypothetical trading strategy that usually aims for 90-180 point moves in the major currency pairs risking 40-70 points. This analysis is updated every day usually between 8:00 and 10:00 CET. If some larger and dramatic movements develop during the day, special updates may be posted during the day at any time. (CET stands for "Central European Time")
Update for: 2012-05-04
Posted on: Friday, 04 May 2012 10:09
Very Short-Term Trend: weak downtrend
EUR/USD remains in downtrend, but the upside correction from yesterday's low has been too small in both time and price to consider it complete. Therefore, I expect to see another day of choppy trading and eventually gains twd the key 1.3195 level. The key is what happens then. If the market moves firmly abv 1.3195, the immediate pressure will shift on the upside. If however, the prices retreat sharply from there, the current negative outlook will remain intact. Overall, I don't have huge confidence right now. The most likely scenario that I expect is a spike up to 1.3195 followed by a retreat, but let's see....
Strategy: Stand aside.
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